Perceptions Of Public Opinion Research Articles

The Role of Preference Formation and Perception in Unequal Representation. Combined Evidence From Elite Interviews and Focus Groups in Germany

Unequal representation can result from politicians’ biased perception of public opinion. Existing research has focused on the numerical accuracy with which politicians estimate preferences distributions in surveys. This method ignores politicians’ broader assumptions about public preferences; e.g. regarding their crystallization, salience, malleability, and measurability in surveys. We address these assumptions in a novel two-stage research design using redistributive tax policy in Germany as a case. Interviews with parliamentarians show that voters are perceived as uninformed, disinterested, and susceptible to anti-tax mobilization by business representatives. Support for taxing the rich in polls is dismissed as superficial and irrelevant for political behavior. In a second step, we verify these assumptions in twelve focus groups with high- or low-educated citizens. They largely confirm the assumed indifference and anti-tax attitudes. An education gap in tax preferences cannot be identified. Support expressed in previous surveys tends to disappear in conversations, which aligns with politicians’ experiences.

The people think what I think: False consensus and unelected elite misperception of public opinion

AbstractPolitical elites must know and rely faithfully on the public will to be democratically responsive. Recent work on elite perceptions of public opinion shows that reelection‐motivated politicians systematically misperceive the opinions of their constituents to be more conservative than they are. We extend this work to a larger and broader set of unelected political elites such as lobbyists, civil servants, journalists, and the like, and report alternative empirical findings. These unelected elites hold similarly inaccurate perceptions about public opinion, though not in a single ideological direction. We find this elite population exhibits egocentrism bias, rather than partisan confirmation bias, as their perceptions about others' opinions systematically correspond to their own policy preferences. Thus, we document a remarkably consistent false consensus effect among unelected political elites, which holds across subsamples by party, occupation, professional relevance of party affiliation, and trust in party‐aligned information sources.

Crypto-Atlanticism: The untold preferences of policy elites in neutral and non-aligned states

ABSTRACT The existing scholarship shows that neutral and non-aligned countries in Europe closely and often covertly engage with NATO despite their official posture. However, we lack comparative insights into how this phenomenon plays out in various countries. To understand this phenomenon of crypto-Atlanticism (CA) better we develop a framework to capture variations depending on the strength of elites’ Atlanticist preferences and their perceptions of public opinion’s preferences for neutrality. We illustrate our framework with evidence from twenty-four interviews with policy elites from Austria, Serbia and Sweden conducted between 2020 and 2022. Our findings show that elites exhibited various forms of CA: while the strength of Atlanticism is stronger in Austria and Sweden than in Serbia, the degree of restriction in publicly expressing these preferences was less restrained in Sweden than in Austria and Serbia. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of our findings for the theory and practice of military neutrality.

STEREOTIP POTRET PERILAKU PROFESI AKUNTAN DALAM SINEMATOGRAFI SESUAI DENGAN KODE ETIK PROFESI AKUNTAN

The image of the accounting profession has been stereotyped in various visual and social media. Stereotypes strengthen the positive and negative characteristics of the accountant's own perceptions as well as the perception of public opinion in viewing the accounting profession. The research aim is to understand how the image of accountants is portrayed by the media as stated by Honorio et al. (2022) and stereotypes related to the image of an accountant found in the films The Accountant (2016), Tooi Bigltoi Fail (2011), Wanted (2008), The Dark Knight (2008), and Rock&Rolla (2008). The theory used was social representation and stereotypes related to the image of the accounting profession in a film. A qualitative writing method with a literature study approach used to find references regarding accountant stereotypes, as well as their representation in cinematographic productions by analyzing selected films. The results of the research show that visual media plays a bigger role in reinforcing current stereotypes, through the role of accountants in film production. Demystification of several stereotypes in the character of accountants began to be more diverse, no longer represented negatively. Characteristics such as courage, intelligence and credibility are predominant among other characters. Nevertheless, the characteristics raised are not used in accordance with the accounting professions code of ethics. Research contributes to the explanation of distortions involving the image of accountants in relation to what is depicted in the film, which still does not reflect the disclosure by the film and changes the negative image of the accounting profession from the public view. Subsequent research suggests analyzing in more detail from various aspects and can answer questions about professional ethics to generate greater visibility and interest for accounting professionals in the future. This research provides novelty related to the research field of the accounting profession in the world of cinematography.

Do Politicians Outside the United States Also Think Voters Are More Conservative than They Really Are?

In an influential recent study, Broockman and Skovron (2018) found that American politicians consistently overestimate the conservativeness of their constituents on a host of issues. Whether this conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions of public opinion is a uniquely American phenomenon is an open question with broad implications for the quality and nature of democratic representation. We investigate it in four democracies: Belgium, Canada, Germany, and Switzerland. Despite these countries having political systems that differ greatly, we document a strong and persistent conservative bias held by a majority of the 866 representatives interviewed. Our findings highlight the conservative bias in elites’ perception of public opinion as a widespread regularity and point toward a pressing need for further research on its sources and impacts.

Projection in Politicians' Perceptions of Public Opinion

Research has shown that politicians' perceptions of public opinion are subject to social projection. When estimating the opinions of voters on a broad range of issues, politicians tend to assume that their own preferences are shared by voters. This article revisits this finding and adds to the literature in three ways. First, it makes a conceptual contribution by bringing together different approaches to the analysis of projection and its consequences. Second, relying on data from surveys with politicians (n = 866) in four countries (Belgium, Canada, Germany, and Switzerland) conducted between March 2018 and September 2019, it shows that there is more projection in politicians' estimations of their partisan electorate than in their estimations of the general public or of their geographic district. Third, comparing the data on politician projection with data from parallel surveys with citizens, the article reveals that—at least in three out of the four countries studied here—elected politicians are not better at avoiding erroneous projection than ordinary citizens. The article discusses the implications of these findings for the workings of representative democracy.

Regulating Gambling Use through the Overton Window: From an Addictive Behavior to a Social and Epidemiological Problem

During the last decade, gambling (online and offline) regulation has become a social and epidemiological problem all around Europe. The aftermaths of this addiction have increased since the so-called "responsible gambling law", in the second decade of the 21st century. The Overton window (OW) strategy is a political theory that describes how the perception of public opinion can be modified so that ideas that are inconceivable for society become accepted over time. The objective of this study is to identify whether an OW has been used to bias the adequacy of the gambling debate, as well as its scientific, legal, and political bases and the main consequences for both the general population and the major risk groups, especially the consequences in social and health contexts. The study was conducted by the application of the historical-logical method as the central axis of analysis and reflection, and the technique of qualitative research content analysis as a procedure in the process of execution of the scientific task, related to a historical trend study of the research object. The main consequences found were: the political acceptance of gambling for economical causes and taxes benefits, the use of popular characters to increase the acceptance of the pattern of behavior, the inclusion of the gambling operators as agents in the risks control, and the absence of intervention until the main consequences have been transformed into an epidemiological problem (with social aftermaths higher than the previously identified related to the gambling problems). Furthermore, the results suggest the need to implement prevention and health promotion strategies and the adoption of specific legal measures that regulate the access and the marketing of gambling operators' activities.

Coevolution modeling of group behavior and opinion based on public opinion perception

It is important to study the evolution mechanism of group behavior for the prevention and control of harmful group behavior on social networks. Most researchers focus on the study of group behavior evolution in a deterministic environment, ignoring the influence of the uncertain environment formed by the randomness of behavioral decision-making, the incompleteness of public opinion information, and the instability of behavioral states. Therefore, this paper starts with the behavior decision-making process of individuals in an uncertain environment, defines the perception of public opinion, and builds a coevolution model of group behavior and opinion. First, considering the impact of public opinion information on group behavior evolution, this paper defines emotional resonance and topic popularity to quantify public opinion perception and designs an uncertain behavior decision-making model based on public opinion perception. Then, for the influence of the instability of the behavioral state on the opinion evolution process, this paper designs an opinion evolution model for perception based on the unstable behavioral state. Finally, we design the behavior state evolution mechanism based on the instability of the behavior state and fuse it with the behavior decision-making model and opinion evolution model to construct a coevolution model of group behavior and opinion. Compared with the experimental results of other models and real group behavior evolution, our model is effective.

Britain’s China policy after Brexit: Based on pragmatism or values first?

After Brexit, Britain has vowed to build a “Global Britain”. Guided by this strategy, the Great Britain’s policy towards People’s Republic of China is undergoing a more dramatic adjustment, which has brought the relations between China and the United Kingdom from a “golden era” to a more turbulent and unpredictable period of today. Overall, Britain’s current policy toward China is based on a range of policy tools, such as investment screening, Indo-Pacific Policy, as well as bilateral mechanisms, to catch the Chinese market for economic gain, while politically following the United States and provoking China on ideological and sovereignty matters in order to maintain its alliance with the West. Given in general the increase of negative perceptions of British public opinion of China, as well as the dramatic changes in the international situation (including the occurrence of major geopolitical events such as the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict), adjustments in the UK’s policy toward China will continue for some time, which will impact the stability of Sino-British relations. In the future, based on pragmatism, Britain’s China policy will maintain a flexible balance between maintaining selective cooperation with China in economy and global governance and deepening confrontation with China in the political sphere.

Общества большие и малые: о риторике III отделения при Николае I

The article examines the evolution of the perception of the word “society” and its derivatives in documents of the Third Section during the reign of Nicholas I. The two distinct meanings of the word were used to refer to two traditional objects of surveillance by the secret police: society as a whole and a smaller part of it, an organization. While presenting its vision and analysis of “societies” of different levels in annual reports and current files, the Third Section simultaneously recorded the perception of public opinion by the state authorities, and acted as a meaning-forming institution that determined what exactly should be considered a society. Changes in the vocabulary used in the documents to describe different types of “societies” and such derivatives as “public opinion” (literally — “opinion by society”) reflect both political changes in the country and power practices. Whereas the first annual reports by the Third Section (from 1827 on) widely use the term “public opinion” (but only as a direct translation from the French, the language of the documents), the authors of the later reports totally avoid it. In addition, they tend to avoid the usage of “society” in the narrow sense, replacing it with various synonyms (such as “gathering” or “a bunch of”). During the last and most severe seven years of the reign of Nicholas I, the word “society” (in the broad sense) acquires a new meaning: the aggregate of people who are loyal to the tsar and the political regime.

They will hate us for this: effects of media coverage on Islamist terror attacks on Muslims’ perceptions of public opinion, perceived risk of victimization, and behavioral intentions

Abstract While research has intensively studied the effects of media coverage of Islamist terror on non-Muslims, our knowledge about how it affects Muslims themselves is still limited. Following Sikorski et al. (2017), we distinguish between undifferentiated and differentiated news on Islamist terror, i.e., news reports that explicitly establish or deny a link between Muslims or Islam and Islamist terror. In a 1 × 4 randomized experiment, we exposed N = 423 German Muslims to four different news conditions (terror differentiated, terror undifferentiated, criminal act, and a control group). Our results show that Muslims infer a negative picture of public opinion toward their group from news articles about Islamist terror, with stronger effects for undifferentiated depictions. Moreover, this notion leads to an increased perceived risk for the ingroup to fall victim to xenophobic violence. A strong German national identity attenuated the effects, whereas Muslim identity had no moderating effect.

Vox pops vs. poll results—effects of consonant and dissonant displays of public opinion in news coverage

Abstract Interviews with ordinary people on the street, so-called vox pops, are a popular way to present public opinion in the news. Although early research on the phenomenon claimed them to be more influential than base-rate information such as opinion polls, newer research, and meta-analyses paint a more complex picture of influence. In addition, research on the competing influence of these information types is scarce, especially in scenarios where they provide conflicting information about what the public thinks. Our study analyzes how various combinations of vox pops and public opinion polls affect audience’s perceptions of public opinion using a two-country experiment on two political issues. Results suggest that both vox pops and opinion polls influence public opinion perceptions, with polls being more influential than vox pops even when both cues contradict each other.

Americans experience a false social reality by underestimating popular climate policy support by nearly half

Pluralistic ignorance—a shared misperception of how others think or behave—poses a challenge to collective action on problems like climate change. Using a representative sample of Americans (N = 6119), we examine whether Americans accurately perceive national concern about climate change and support for mitigating policies. We find a form of pluralistic ignorance that we describe as a false social reality: a near universal perception of public opinion that is the opposite of true public sentiment. Specifically, 80–90% of Americans underestimate the prevalence of support for major climate change mitigation policies and climate concern. While 66–80% Americans support these policies, Americans estimate the prevalence to only be between 37–43% on average. Thus, supporters of climate policies outnumber opponents two to one, while Americans falsely perceive nearly the opposite to be true. Further, Americans in every state and every assessed demographic underestimate support across all polices tested. Preliminary evidence suggests three sources of these misperceptions: (i) consistent with a false consensus effect, respondents who support these policies less (conservatives) underestimate support by a greater degree; controlling for one’s own personal politics, (ii) exposure to more conservative local norms and (iii) consuming conservative news correspond to greater misperceptions.

Effects of online user comments on public opinion perception, personal opinion, and willingness to speak out: A cross-cultural comparison between Germany and South Korea

ABSTRACT This paper presents a cross-cultural comparison in the field of spiral of silence online. We investigated the effects of user comments on public opinion perception and users’ opinions and willingness to speak out in two cultural settings. Previous research has indicated that spiral of silence effects are greater in collectivistic versus individualistic cultures. Our study was conducted in South Korea, which is collectivistic and Germany, which is individualistic. To test the conformity and silencing hypotheses, we conducted online experiments using comments on online news sites that were congruent or incongruent with personal opinion. Our findings supported the conformity hypothesis and the impact of context on public opinion perception and personal opinion, which were shaped by comments in both countries. In Germany, effects were confined to highly collectivistic users.

How the term “white privilege” affects participation, polarization, and content in online communication

The language used in online discussions affects who participates in them and how they respond, which can influence perceptions of public opinion. This study examines how the term white privilege affects these dimensions of online communication. In two lab experiments, US residents were given a chance to respond to a post asking their opinions about renaming college buildings. Using the term white privilege in the question decreased the percentage of whites who supported renaming. In addition, those whites who remained supportive when white privilege was mentioned were less likely to create an online post, while opposing whites and non-whites showed no significant difference. The term also led to more low-quality posts among both whites and non-whites. The relationship between question language and the way participants framed their responses was mediated by their support or opposition for renaming buildings. This suggests that the effects of the term white privilege on the content of people’s responses is primarily affective. Overall, mention of white privilege seems to create internet discussions that are less constructive, more polarized, and less supportive of racially progressive policies. The findings have the potential to support meaningful online conversation and reduce online polarization.

Rapid Perception of Public Opinion in Emergency Events through Social Media

Rapid Perception of Public Opinion in Emergency Events through Social Media

Linking Public Opinion Perception, Minority, and Stigma – An Integrated Model of Hiding Male Same-Sex Affection in Public

ABSTRACT Inspired by the question of why some gay and bisexual men hide same-sex affection when in public, this study integrates the concept of minority stress into Noelle-Neumann’s spiral of silence theory and Goffman’s interaction order to build an integrated model explaining why some people avoid nonverbal stigma expression in public. It is hypothesized that perceived stigma, prejudice events, and internalized stigma will result in a greater tendency to hide male same-sex affection. An empirical study involving n = 25,884 gay and bisexual men in Germany showed that higher levels of perceived stigma and internalized stigma were associated with a greater tendency to hide male same-sex affection when in public. However, being a victim of prejudice events did not substantially predict whether individuals hide their male same-sex affection. Findings are discussed in terms of their generalizability and implications for the underlying theory.

Racialized Pandemic: The Effect of Racial Attitudes on COVID-19 Conspiracy Theory Beliefs

As national and international health agencies rushed to respond to the global spread of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, commonly known as COVID-19), one challenge these organizations faced was the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories about the virus. Troublingly, much of the misinformation was couched in racialized language, particularly regarding the source of the virus and responsibility for its spread, fostering the development of related conspiracy theories. Media coverage of these conspiracy theories, particularly early on in the pandemic, had negative impacts on individuals' engagement in protective behaviors and concern with the spread of COVID-19. From extant work, racial resentment and white identity have been shown to be deeply woven into the fabric of contemporary American politics, affecting perceptions of public opinion even after accounting for social and political identities. While racial attitudes have been less studied in relation to conspiracy theory belief, we expect racial resentment and white identity to affect compliance with public health behaviors and COVID-19 conspiracy theory belief. Using observational and experimental survey data (N= 1,045), quota-sampled through Lucid Theorem (LT) in the spring of 2020, we demonstrate that framing the virus in racialized language alters endorsement of COVID-19 conspiracy theories, contingent upon levels of racial resentment and white identity and find that higher levels of conspiracy theory belief decreased compliance with preventative measures.

Who Leaves Malicious Comments on Online News? An Empirical Study in Korea

ABSTRACT Because online news comments have a strong influence on the reader’s perception of public opinion, there is a call for efforts to reduce the adverse impact of online news comments, particularly malicious ones. Although many online news platforms currently use technology to detect malicious comments automatically, there is still a technical limit in identifying malicious comments. To improve detection accuracy, it is necessary to understand not only malicious comments but also malicious commenters. Despite the importance of understanding malicious commenters, there is little empirical research on their characteristics. This study aims to understand the characteristics of malicious commenters and develop a prediction model based on their features using real data of users and commenting activities from Naver, a leading Internet news portal in Korea. This study found that the demographic characteristics of malicious commenters tend to be those of males and older people. In terms of commenting activities, the online news commenters who leave more comments per news article and per day, delete more comments, and leave longer comments tend to be malicious commenters.

Public Perception Analysis of Hot Topics in Intellectual Property Based on Microblog Data

Public opinion is a crucial factor for government policy making, implementation, evaluation, and social development. This paper analyzes the public opinion perception of intellectual property subject based on microblog data and puts forward the concept and calculation model for the breadth, depth, and comprehensive value of public perception. Then, taking the opinion evaluation in microblog platform as an example, this paper studies the public perception of intellectual property subject and illustrates the changing trend of public perception through related events in microblog. The results show that the four topics of trademark, intellectual property, copyright, and patent are the hot topics of public perception, the breadth, depth, and comprehensive value of public perception for the four topics fluctuated greatly, on the whole. In addition, when the content of microblog is related to personal benefits, business benefits, and personal interests, it can cause widespread public concern. Additionally, the public mainly participate in the dissemination of public opinion on intellectual property subject through forwarding. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions from the perspective of how to maximize the effect of intellectual property policy.